Monday, July 2, 2012

The Positive Trade When Incumbent Presidents Run For Re-Election

 Capital IQ's Sam Stovall appeared on Nightly Business Report on Friday, June 29, 2012 to provide some statistics on how the stock market tends to perform in the second half of the year. Here are the statistics he provided going back to 1900 (without indicating which index he used to calculate the returns of "the market"):
  1. The 2nd quarter is usually down
  2. About 80%+ of the time the market posts its high for the year in the second half.
  3. About 70% of the time the market posts its high for the year in the fourth quarter.
  4. Whenever the market has risen from July 31st to October 31st, the incumbent has won the Presidential election 80% of the time.
  5. Whenever the market has declined from July 31st to October 31st, the incumbent has lost the Presidential election 88% of the time.
from Dr. Duru - Seeking Alpha

1. So Far the 2nd Quarter is Down. 

more to come

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