Monday, June 29, 2009

All The News that's Fit To Print - Billy Mays Dead at 50!......BUT WAIT THERE'S MORE!!!

OK, Farrah Fawcett, Michael Jackson - but Billy Mays - yes one of the most notable voices on TV in the 21st Century - For Whatever - Our Society is Responsible for the Great Success of Billy Mays - as in the past "Set it and Forget it" was Ronco's Hall of Fame pitch until Billy Mays took the spotlight

"But wait! THERE’S NO MORE!!"

Billy Mays - A true American Icon - The only man who was tolerated in speaking in "ALL CAPS" - Rest in Peace

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Obama has had everyone read this.........

Obama has had everyone read this, and you should too. It provides a very different angle on the problem.

- from John Mauldin

Saturday, June 20, 2009

John Mauldin - one of my favorite Commentators

From John:
This Time is Different*

"I have often written that the four most dangerous words in the investment world are "This Time It's Different." If memory serves me, I have written several e-letters disparaging various personages who have uttered those very words, and gone one to confirm later that it wasn't different. It almost never is. And yet - and yet! - I am going to make the case over the next few weeks that it really is different this time, with only a lonely asterisk as a caveat. What prompts my probable foolishness to tempt the investing gods is the rather large amount of bad analysis based on unreasonable (dare I say lazy or surface?) readings of statistics that is coming from the mainstream investment media and investment types with their built-in bias for bullish analysis. Normally, gentle reader, your humble analyst is a paragon of moderate sensibilities, but I have been pushed over a mental edge and need to restore balance. I anticipate that this topic will take several weeks, as trying to cover it all in one sitting would exhaust us both. It should be fun....we are on a track that looks far more like the Great Depression than the recessions of our lifetimes. To expect a normal recovery cycle, whether it is corporate profits or lending or consumer spending or capital investment or (pick a category) is just not reasonable. This is a period that is fundamentally, in so many ways, different. And the recovery (and there will be one!) will also be of a different warp and woof throughout the entire world economy...The asterisk on "This Time It's Different*"? Human nature hasn't changed. We are still driven by fear and greed. The business cycle has not been repealed. Free-market capitalism will get us back (with a few new rules of engagement). What's different will be the nature of this recovery. All the other eternal truths will remain."

From Me:

Finally, the phrase - "Too Big To Fail" yes our economy is too big to fail - and the requirement to restore growth is to eliminate the "waste:" unnecessary spending, using of credit, greed, planning and spending without really planning, Etc. ALSO - the speed of time in our lives and conditions cannot allow "the lapse of Recession/Depression" to happen - it is mathmatical and probable that this recovery will be called a Miracle - the government is doing the right thing by throwing money at everything (it's what we do - buy a problem away - it has worked every time and it will work now) What about the future cost. We live for now - the future will take care of itself - as it has in the past.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Holden Caulfield would be 76 years old this year

J.D Salinger (The Recluse,) 90 years old, is living in a Hospital as someone is publishing a follow-up - to capitalize on the Classic Novel - blocked in Court from being published and sold............

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

From a trader suffering with Dementia

Update on the market from an insecure trader.  My current thinking is relying on 9000 on the Dow to be a "Basing Point" (place to stop and ponder) building pressure before making a decision - maybe even beginning a "Coiled Spring"

T2108 is showing a 90 number which is displaying an immediate turn-around is due. But we know it can stay above 80 for more that one would think.  It is also showing a MACD which is just crossing into positive territory (a conflict to the previous statement.) Also, the RSI has recently crossed above 50 (another conflict to the first statement.)

The Markets are making "good news" out of minimally positive news and the VIX is below the magical 30 (at 29.84) working on a daily charting channel where the support is at about 27 - 28.

Finally, when all fails I look at the Moon
Sunday is a full Moon - representing Change

The Fig!

Monday, June 1, 2009

The Economy - Boise, Idaho - Point of View

(Since no one really reads all this stuff - let me say that the Stock Market is rising to 9,000 and then will hold and eventually pull back (to as much as 7500) after the buyers lose their patience for recovery and the weary hype that will drown in itself.  Oil is increasing for the "wishing price" by the producers and sellers - it too may hit 75 but will eventually reduce itself to the low 50's. Real Estate like a bad batch of Muffins - has squatted to rise and will once again get "cooked in the squat.")

In any event - President Obama and his team will be winning world records in handling the problem that was mostly created by the Bush Administration - and holdover bad economic situations that had been created since the 1970's (when the unions crippled the auto industry - a two month industry Union Strike, that gave them the Power! The Seed was planted in the 1970's and I have no sympathy for the millions of workers who chewed on the fat until the plants closed - they were overpaid  since the mid 1970's had the best unemployment, best retirement plans and best medical insurance - Wow!  Can you imagine they are very disturbed that the ship sunk!)  I feel very sorry for all the auto people - but it was an obvious result.

Boise Idaho population about 225,000. Capital of Idaho.  College town: 10% of total population is represented by Students and Faculty.  Largest Employer: Micron Technology 10,000.

Boise is a well known entry to the surrounding Mountain Area in Fishing, Rafting, etc. Hunting, skiing, and other Mountain Recreation sports - winter and summer. 

Real Estate - The current dilemma: At June 1st 2009, There are a record number of unsold homes and previously owned homes for sale.  Rental rates are sinking 30% - as a confluence of ordinary rentals and Homes for sale/ turned into rentals are sinking the market.  There appears to be no recovery in Real Estate "for sale" and now "for rent" in sight.*

Employment - Unemployment in the last 12 months has gone up from 4.5 to 8.6% of total employment.

No current Recovery in sight.

*people are moving out of houses they can't afford - failing to sell the house, they are trying to rent the house while for sale - so the rent will pay the mortgage, insurance and taxes - which of course the rent will not do.  Then they are renting something they are paying rent on where they moved, plus all or some of the costs of the house they cannot Afford, Sell or Rent.
....I guess I would call this....Getting in Deeper

On a Macro Level (USA)

What Hasn't Changed (at all)?
The employment problem
The Real Estate problem
Transition of Failed Economics
Real Estate
Government Costs

What Has Changed?
A better smarter Administration
The Beginning of Transition of Failed Businesses
Automobile Industries
Banks and Financial Institutions
The price of Oil and Gas 
States, Cities and Towns - regrouping
Republican Party looks permanently paralysed
The general population has begun saving
spending less
using less credit/increase in Debit Cards
Borrowing less

What looks like progress but isn't
lower interest rates (no one is borrowing - Banks are hoarding)
Inflation - higher food prices - Oil rising without reason
Regrouping the Auto Industry - change will require 6 to 18 months
Regrouping the Financial Industry - the crooks are just looking for another twist

Just as an example - look at the weekend ads for Automobiles and Real Estate the Sellers have not changed how they were misleading consumers - It would be interesting to review 10 automobile sales - the same car, same dealer and see the differences in the prices - type of buyer (women, minorities, weak men)

Yesterday, you could reserve a quality room in a hotel, resort and it would be interesting to see the different rates paid by similar people - one example is $110 to $375 per nite/same room/same season/days of week/etc.... The Hotel Industry needs to be severely punished by the economy and the consumer - the consumer should take no prisoners