Thursday, May 28, 2009

Building list on next downturn of the Markets

Without any knowledge of the markets, the likely of making mistakes, a history of making big mistakes - an arrogance masking ignorance....I am anticipating the markets working their way up to 9,000 -

I posted this 2 months ago (March 23rd):

"My knowledge of the markets is limited and dangerous, having said that, My first impression of what is happening:
1. An enormous amount of $ is going to enter our Economy - This will Cause:
A. Inflation
B. The price of oil and comodities will begin to rise faster than other things.
C. The markets will stay at this level or increase to 9,000 - Next 3 mos.
D. The $ will fall against the other currencies of the world unless they fall too!

Republican "Senator Boner" will make lots of noise signifying nothing - he will eventually go limp."

So from 2+ months ago, we are getting close to 9,000. AFTER THAT I believe we will get at least a 1500 point downward adjustment - and then the markets will spend the remainder of the summer struggling in the range 7,500 to 9,000. Post labor day movements are anybody's guess. (Surprises? After all the restructuring of the Auto Industries - "Survivor Sales" will continue. Retail Food markets (divided by the likes of Winco and WalMart on one level, and the name brand retailers (Albertsons,etc.) will suffer a reality - Esp. the Brand Retailers.
The housing market is in it "pronounced" 4th round of recovery, without recovery in sight - will cause concern - a slower than anyone expected recovery. in the "Fool me Once, shame on you - Fool me Twice Shame on me" category - employment will begin to selectively get better - except people will start paying down more debt (a form of savings) and will begin real "Hoarding" another form of savings.)

During the time in a lower range I will be purchasing 2011 Call options in the following companies and ETF's

Cisco Systems
Natural Gas

I currently hold long-term a large # of shares in PWE
I have a 20% hedge position in PWE "Puts"
I will be increasing this position hedge position to 50%
PWE is both an oil play a fairly large dividend play

I currently hold long term calls in GE, INTC and some gambling positions in XTXI (stock) and Clearwire (Call options)

PS. Yesterday, I heard an interview by Larry Kudlow with former Vice President Cheney - Dead Men Talking!

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

"You only have to be right Once!"

From Trader-X

Mark Cuban on Success and Motivation

I am not a fan of Mark Cuban a lot of the time, but I respect his business acumen and success. 

Over on his blog he made multiple posts on "Success and Motivation", and they are well worth reading. Not just for the Michael Dell and Bill Gates stories, but for a look at how he built his business with and from nothing and for valuable insights that can be applied to whatever you undertake in life. 

As he says, "you only have to be right once."

Grab a beer, sit down and relax, and give it a read.

on another note William "Bill" Siedman - Rest in Peace - CPA "Honest Broker" past FDIC Chmn

Mr. Seidman was born April, 29, 1921, in Grand Rapids, Mich. He received his undergraduate degree from Dartmouth College, his LLB from Harvard University and his MBA from the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business. From 1985 to 1991, Mr. Seidman served as the fourteenth chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Under President George H.W. Bush, Seidman was tapped to head up the newly created federal agency called the Resolution Trust Corp. (RTC), which landed the mammoth task of cleaning up the S&L messBill Seidman

Darkness Revisited

In the past 7 years I have become a student of How thoughts of suicide become a reality - a no turn away tragedy (for the living, yes and even the victim.)  It becomes a ratchet with one-way barbs that keep getting tighter in a one direction - "Darkness Visible" the title of William Styron's book of his voyage (a mere 89 pages.)  

From a friend talking about someone who was into dancing "in their group" who followed dance floors around Bakersfield, California:

"I made it to they gym,.... started a painting... and got photos organized for a DVD presentation for my friend's Memorial. It was sure fun looking at all of the things he was so good at...diving, circus acts, high-diving, skiing, ski patrol, skydiving formation, hiking, dancing, singing telegrams and stripping, teaching music, 6 different instruments, musical instrument repair (learned from his father), herpetology, sign language, snakes.
He treated each person like they were special, insisted on opening the girl's door, dressed nice always, . He always improved his dance technique, but he was still more about the fun. If you messed up, he made light of it, or humorously made an issue of it and went on. He made it his business that if there were not enough guys to lead, he made sure all the girls got their turn dancing. He just made everything fun for everybody by his own enthusiasm for the activity. He was all about women, but never inappropriate. Women loved him....but he was a guy's guy too. Then he met and married a woman that was just as outgoing as he much for that now.... His wife IS a character. Very funny - she will keep you laughing."

On the day of his choice he selected and failed at 3 ways to commit suicide and finally  - he succeeded.  RIP

desperate, destructive, determined - the intensity of his will must have had him moving at light speed - amazingly unstable, shaking - mentally distraught - such self punishment!  Is there a Hell?  Yes, but it is here on earth for some - How do you intervene when you have been eliminated mentally by the victim...that is what intervention is - it begins with reading William Styron's book - "Darkness Visible" so one can understand what is happening.   Intervention means stepping in to an unwelcome situation and being steadfast!

personally, I thank my children, their mother, and a good friend (who gave me the book)  for being there.

Saturday, May 9, 2009

This Picture represents my current problem - 24/7

Posted by Picasa
I live by a primary motto created by Charlie Brown
"I like to have everything so good I can take it for granted"

In this picture the Keystone represents my head and the adjacent two rocks represent my right and left shoulder. The connection of my right (picture left) shoulder and my head is and has been a source of cronic pain (24/7 if you will) Several Weeks ago I visited a Chiropractor for the first time in my life. To No avail and much frustration. I am now communicating with a ZEN Mistress who is "over the top" with suggestions of Accupuncture, and other assorted natural remedies including lots of massage, etc. I am currently using "Dirty Drugs" Advil, Advil Combos, and some minor acceptables like "Heat" Arnica, etc. No one has suggested Extra Crunchy Natural Peanut butter with Mostly fruit natural preserves on heavy dark multi seeded bread. No one has suggest "Break the Sheet Rock" aggressive sexual Contact. The Pain is about to force me to give in to Zen Natural Ravi Shenkar ultimate needle stimulation...Oh my God(!) Charlie Brown - What's a mortal to do?
রবি শংকর*
*a Hindu, almost always a Brahmin, who has memorized a substantial portion of the Vedas, along with the corresponding rhythms and melodies for chanting or singing them.

Although ZEN is mostly Budhist in nature - the Hindu squeeze in their any Hindu would, including Charlie Brown. Further more, Charlie Brown has communicated his answer to me in the words of .... Seng-t’san (d.606)

"Pursue not the outer entanglements; dwell not in the inner void, Be serene in the oneness of things and dualism vanishes by itself"

I live by the Mantra: "Pain vanishes by itself"

PS. The accuracy and relavency of the facts in this post are at the leasure of the writer and cannot be challenged as fact - consider fantasy - facing factual frustration.

Update Jun 26th - it has been a month since my first Acupuncture treatment. After the 2nd Treatment - all the pain is gone - it's a miracle. After some strenuous activities - it's still gone! The proceedure was provided by a most beautiful woman - Jean Kuty, Boise, Idaho.

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Are The Good Times Really Over - Oh "Merlie?" - The good times are just beginning, heavens to mercy! - Let The Good Times Role!

Let us Pray....Then we can all lay down and die

Fortunately, he met Bob Dylan in time - and began to sing with Willie Nelson The Okie from Muskogie was saved - not born again - just came alive - like risen from the dead!

PS. For those of you who are religiously inflicted, let me say that "Science" will tell you that you are only born once - no 2nd chances no matter who says so!

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Matthew Higgins - Rest In Peace

In Matt's lifetime, I was but a brief stranger who happened to meet him while he was Dealing with his Life's greatest Moment. You are a tight and impressive family, each in your own ways bringing love and Charm to the table.  Thank you for letting me enjoy being with you in Arizona and for introducing me to Matt.

I have a very favorite Poem that expresses, better, my wishes for both you and Matt - 

Beannacht (”Blessing”) by John O’Donohue

On the day when
the weight deadens
on your shoulders
and you stumble,
may the clay dance
to balance you.

And when your eyes
freeze behind
the grey window
and the ghost of loss
gets in to you,
may a flock of colours,
indigo, red, green,
and azure blue
come to awaken in you
a meadow of delight.

When the canvas frays
in the currach of thought
and a stain of ocean
blackens beneath you,
may there come across the waters
a path of yellow moonlight
to bring you safely home.

May the nourishment of the earth be yours,
may the clarity of light be yours,
may the fluency of the ocean be yours,
may the protection of the ancestors be yours.

And so... may a slow wind.....
work... these words of love around you, 
an invisible cloak to mind your life.

I know that Matt will Live in everything you think about and do for years to come - and for that Matt Lives!

For me, he was a kind and gentle man...still looking for what life had to offer - in these trying times