Tuesday, December 29, 2009

2010 International CES, January 7-10...Should be mindblowing!

Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) is where all of the companies with new products in the Information Technology (IT)
industry come to "The Disneyland of the Adult World" Las Vegas - to show off their new products - which will turn into Both Business and Consumer's most wanted and needed products of the "near" future.  

Such things are on Dock - Announcements Galore:

Downloading PDF documents and having them converted into speech - for listening rather than reading - and step 2 - converted to read at a faster pace if desired.

Attempts by other companies to simulate (what Apple will finally produce) The Touch Tablet - combo Laptop/web book... book reader and probably other than providing "pyhsical" sexual satisfaction - another type of satisfaction most desired. At the annual Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas next week, at least a half dozen companies will unveil new e-reading devices, including Plastic Logic Ltd., Hearst Corp.’s Skiff, Spring Design Inc. and Entourage Systems Inc.

Product Categories:

Audio Hardware & Software
Blank Media
Bluetooth Technology
Broadband Technology
Car Audio
Computer Hardware & Software
Content Distribution
Content Production
Digital Car
Digital Hollywood
Global Positioning Systems
Handheld Information Devices
High-performance Audio & Home Theater
Home Appliances
Home/Personal Healthcare
Digital TV/HDTV
Electronic Gaming

Once the CES begins - two providers will be offering live Information: (search)

Automation Home Security
Home Theater & Custom Installation
Internet Applications & Services
In-Vehicle Technology
MP3/Internet Audio
Personal Electronics
Photography/Digital Imaging
Retail Resources
Satellite Systems
Small Office/Home Office
Speech Technology
Telematics & Vehicle Navigation
Telephony Equipment
Video Hardware & Software
Wi-Fi Technology
Wireless/Mobile Communications

Monday, December 28, 2009

Happy New Year - El Viejo

Scent of a woman

Some Days You're the Dog and others the Mule

Amazing - How Quickly the "Economic Weather" will change when the holiday season ends this year.

There appears to be an unsettling atmosphere of optimism in the Securities Markets.  Who believes them?
They say (?) real estate has bottomed - By looking at the advertising here in the Phoenix area - you would think Real Estate is a great investment - the advertising prices look like they never fell - too much deception. In commercial real estate, lots of dead bodies - LOTS! - It will be interesting how many commercial business stayed alive thru the holidays - but the future, without stimulus, looks very cloudy - The Automobile Industry seems to have run into another drought.  Good time to buy a new car - if you care.   I came out today to gather some acorns and I'm ready to come out on sunny days - and stay near my "hollow." My mind is already wandering toward spring and my plans for Mountain Rivers and Streams - cool summer weather at altitude - keeping my tan and working up my exercise and down my appetite.  Happy New Year - I know mine will be!

There is always the challenge of being an older person.  We, as a group, are not even considered - on the other hand - we generally, most of us, will not be suffering - what is at hand for those who are counted.

El Viejo

Friday, December 25, 2009

4am Christmas Morning - The Economy - The People - GBA

"My Motto: I like to have everything so perfect,
I can take it for granted!" - Charlie Brown

Tomorrow - the rest of everything that did not sell before xmas will be going on sale at 5AM - so what is left - All of the Hype - all of the hope - take a look down the road - Xmas to the First Day of Spring....the economy will have to be propped up by various stimulus plans to keep all of the crippled sectors from falling out of site.

Mercy, Mercy, Mercy... there is a health feature to the final cleansing that is necessary for all of us to once again move into a normal thriving economy - we should see this in the next 3 months...and it will be a slow birth out of the dreads of all those who fell and may not recover until 2012. We are just finishing a Decade of the worst economic and international social happenings in the past 80 years.

As a trader, I am slowly moving my trades into "short" derivatives, a way to profit from adversity. Millions of traders are awaiting this change...when?  When It's ready and not a moment sooner.  As always Patience is the key - and patience begins when patience runs out...

We will eventually have a new class of people in America - the permanently unemployed - about 10% of the workforce

So, thank god Charlie Brown and I have the same philosophy - God Bless America - and everyone else too!

PS. There was a reason that our forefathers insisted on "Separation of Church and State." In this Decade, now approaching its end in 6 days - Our Country was Run by a Mental Infant - controlled by a religious group 100 million strong.  George Bush Sr. didn't like Broccoli (as we know is one of the richest nutrients in the vegetable category.) This void in his own nutrition had genetic consequences in the passing of attributes to George W.  We have all suffered - the world suffered - Eat Your Broccoli!!!! Pray to God and hope that those who feel theirs is the only way to god - perish to Hell forever...of course both Charlie Brown and I do not recognize the concept of "Hell" as being anything - so heaven it is for us - and maybe you.....

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Is Life Fair?

Sure!  My mother once said "everyone gets what they deserve (and if you see or meet a couple and wonder why they are together) everyone deserves who they are with - don't even question it......"

NOW everything my mother said was not worth mentioning and not even worth listening listening to.

She spent lots of time trying to manipulate everything and everyone....human nature, I guess

Happy New Year

Monday, November 30, 2009

Jackpot (Jack) is One Year Old this week


Ever since Lily and Bonita (my previous great dog) became lovers, I have been looking for a new friend.  In the past 2 years, I have had 2 dogs that did not work out.  One went to a Ranch in Utah and the other had an infant disease.

This past summer I visited the Boise Humane Shelter (a first class operation - including a Vet Practice onsite.) I was looking for a working female type dog - Healer, Border Collie, etc. As I passed through the Kennels I got this look (above) from a Male Border Collie/Aussie Shepherd/and ? cross.  I walked by, I walked back, then I walked by again.  I went to the front desk and asked about other dogs, puppies, etc. that were being home cared.

I then asked about Jack.  He had been adopted twice and returned...and then the receptionist said "One of the nicest dogs here - and I'm not hustling you here - he's just too active for being a house pet - very smart...blah, blah, blah.....I adopted him and he has turned out to be the greatest dog I have ever kept company with.

I honestly believe he is a gift from a greater power, for my last stretch in life.  Happy Birthday Jack!! and Thanks for being my friend.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

December Begins with a Full Moon and Ends With a Full Moon - Partial Lunar Eclipse December 31

“Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited."  -George Soros

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Urban Legend - Lemmings - Our Market Environment

I originally posted this on September 7th 2007 before the Recession was officially announced. I am bringing it forward - as we are about to begin the other half of the Charting "W" we are at the small peak inside the "W" and will begin the 2nd half of this recovery, with a slide to declare us "temporarily" hopeless.
(Anger, Depression and Disbelief)

More Banks need to Fail!
Real Estate auctions need to withdraw the "hold back"
(Minimum bid)...and let the property go "at Whatever!"
The Security Markets need to face "reality."
Most current profits are a result of cost reductions.
Finally, we have to face that our base unemployment will
find a fixed 10% new class of "havenots" until they are willing
to accept less and vigorously retrain.

When you look toward January - do you see brighter skies or a "Darkness?"

A story involving incidents of the past, that spreads quickly and is popularly believed to be true.that barely have a shred of truth in them - Urban Legend

Well there is such a story about Lemmings Rushing to the edge of a Cliff and committing mass suicide. While many people believe that lemmings commit mass suicide when they migrate. Lemmings will often migrate in large groups. Often, a small stream or similar obstacle will block the migrating lemmings' path, , causing them to stop and scurry around in a panic until the overwhelming urge to press on drives them to overcome the obstacle no matter what the consequence. In most cases, large migrating groups of lemmings will reach a cliff overlooking the ocean (as is common in their environment), where they will stop until the urge to press on causes them to all jump off of the cliff and start swimming to exhaustion. They, inevitably, drown as a result. (This has been documented)

Lemming suicide is a frequently-used metaphor in reference to people who go along unquestioningly with popular opinion, with potentially dangerous or fatal consequences.


click on image to make larger

In this scenario the lemmings would reach the edge of the cliff at "Anxiety" and drown somewhere between "Capitulation", "Depression" and "Disbelief"

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Warren Buffett - says it well.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett offered some advice to Uncle Sam on Friday: Time it right, but tackle the nation's enormous federal deficit.

In an interview with Charlie Rose, Buffett said if the United States keeps flooding the world with its debt, countries will eventually notice that U.S. fiscal policies are "out of control" and become "less and less and less enthused" about lending to it.

But the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway added that though the United States will want to act "fairly soon" to cut the deficit, it has to wait until the economy comes back.

"We want to put out the fire," he said. "Then we want to quit squirting water on those buildings. We have to know when the fire's out."

And how will we know?

"Well, it will be retail sales. It'll be automobile sales. It'll be when home construction starts coming back," Buffett said, adding that the signs might not be recognized until three or four months after the fact. Still, it could happen in the next two years.

Buffett said that while unemployment might stabilize later, it will also come down to a normal rate.

"We'll create new jobs," has assured Rose, explaining that the United States has created millions of jobs since the unemployment rate was last above 10% in the 1980s and it will do the same this time around.

"Who would have thought that when Paul Allen and Bill Gates were down there in Albuquerque eating pizza and drinking coke at two in the morning, that they were a big part of our future?" Buffett asked. "The American economy will come back. And it won't be tomorrow, and it won't be exactly the same, but in the end, we have not changed the American people and their capacity to innovate or their excitement about becoming more prosperous and coming up with new ideas."

And as far as China beating and growing faster than the United States? Buffett said while China's population is four times larger and will thus grow faster, its economy is still much smaller overall.

"I'll meet some guy on the street today whose net worth will be growing faster than mine on a percentage basis. But if I start with a big enough number, it'll be a while before he catches me," Buffett said, adding that it's a "long way off" for China's economy to be larger per capita than that of the U.S.

'I want to make it painful for them'
While Buffett said Washington came together to respond to the financial meltdown "like they should" have, the government should have been more aggressive in dealing with bank executives at too-big-to-fail institutions that needed government intervention.

"If you run a financial institution that, in effect, can bring down the system unless the government steps in, I think something very bad should happen to you," Buffett said. "I want to make it painful for them."

Buffett said while he's "not for shooting them," the executives should not be able to walk away with even 10% of their previous net worth and the directors who hired them should also be punished.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Trading into Monday, Some thoughts about Patterns, Clint Eastwood and The Full Moon

T2108 (and MACD included within) called the turn within one day - 5 to 6 trading days ago - as I related in a post THEN. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$spxa50r

More on MACD: http://macd-trader.blogspot.com/2007/01/moving-...

More on T2108 - Search T2108 and read from Trader Mike and Dr. Duru

I have been trading - in the past few days - with 3 15 min Bars/Volume... the profits are greater for less $ in... as the $VIX moved up (what?) 25% yesterday -

What are you watching - what are your signals - what are you missing not using Bar Charts w/ Volume of Course if you have increased the value of your trading account by atleast 125% in the past 6 months well then, what you are using is working well - even atleast 60% - less than that - well you have to look at how centered you are in your trading. Winning is about "how you do it" not what you are (bear/bull/fool) like Clint Eastwood in "The Unforgiven" - slow down and make every shot count - listen to the writer questioning him when he "dropped" the room - "Who did you shoot first? Why, then Who?, etc"

Listen to Whohoo - "so if we get to 950 to 960 area dont u guys think we should be balls deep long" 950 - 960 Why, but when the price gets there - what is happening at the moment - that is how you make your decision - don't pull your gun out and pull the trigger at a # - pull the trigger because a "set-up" is present - and only then!

Finally, in more times than not, The Full Moon represents change. Astrologers differ on the Draw of the Full Moon - does it begin 3 to 4 days prior - or does change occur - within hours, minutes. The Markets have made a change starting last week - so...does that continue as the change or will a change occur on Monday.

I believe the White House made a proper decision in "calling out Fox TV" if the tables were reversed... and a program about abortion appeared on another network - the right wing would call out "The Guard" and intimidate the advertisers. It's time to shove their own medicine up their asses.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Nice Hair, Howie!

Friends (and not) of WalMart

Arrogance is an unsightly attitude observed by others. Actually, Arrogance's most closely related sibling is Ignorance. Arrogance and Ignorance are also closely related to the Evanlelistas, the Far Right and Republican Party!

People's attitude toward WalMart Comes to mind. A town in Oregon decided to challenge the challengers.

CORNELIUS,Oregon -- Walmart won't open here for nearly a year, but a few weeks ago, the city manager sent out an enthused e-mail: "I think you can tell all your friends now that they can shop for the Christmas holidays at Walmart Supercenter in 2010!"

Walmart doesn't usually get that kind of greeting from Oregon cities.

In recent years, metro cities from Hillsboro to Gresham have fought -- and defeated -- proposed Walmarts. The superstore drives out local businesses and increases traffic, opponents say. In those cities, anti-Walmart activists rallied in droves. Hundreds showed up at council meetings, protesting until the superstore gave up.

Not so in Cornelius. In the four years since Walmart first announced its interest in building a store there, only one group -- Cornelius First -- has formed to protest. Its ranks were slight, and in 2006, the group disbanded after losing a state land use appeal.

Since then, Walmart's Cornelius plans have sailed through. When construction crews broke ground in early October, no one protested.

The difference, city leaders say, is Cornelius needs it more.

Jobs, community improvement, retail ... what's not to like?

Cornelius calls itself Oregon's family community.

But, City Manager David Waffle says, "All our parents work out of town." The city has the longest daily work commute of any metro city -- 29 miles.

Nearly 75 percent of Cornelius' assessed tax value is residential; that means residents -- through property taxes -- shoulder a larger share than usual of city funding.

Economically speaking, it is a state-certified "severely distressed" city and has one of the highest poverty rates in the metro area.

So when Walmart representatives arrived, promising increased tax revenue, 300 new jobs and millions for street improvements, Cornelius residents rejoiced.

"The mood is pretty fantastic," said City Manager Dave Waffle. "(The town is) very eager."

Waffle said the city does have a few naysayers, but in the past year, hundreds of people have called him to ask, "When is Walmart coming?"

"I get my hair cut across the street from the proposed site," he said, "And when I go in there, they always get excited and ask me about the progress so they can tell all their customers. People come in there asking them when it's coming."

Never mind that two of the city's larger stores are a Fred Meyer and a Grande Foods grocery store.

"That's just good competition, and people deserve to have choices," Waffle said. "Our residents are mostly lower and middle income, and they can really benefit from Walmart's low prices."

Walmart is also a destination, says Jose Orozco, an Intel engineer and a member of Cornelius' planning commission. Orozco writes a blog detailing even the most minute details of Walmart's arrival.

Since starting the blog in February, he's heard from people across the state who say they'd drive long distances to go to a Walmart. Orozco himself often drives 45 minutes to McMinnville to shop at Walmart. The same isn't true, he says, of Fred Meyer stores, which proliferate throughout the metro area.

But, Forest Grove City Manager Michael Sykes adds, "I'm happy for them. They're very excited, and we hope it does bring the positive benefits that they're anticipating."

-- Casey Parks

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Time finally, to move from PC to MAC - Windows XP will not move to Win7

I bought two Apple MacBook Pros this year. The transition from a PC to a Mac is very easy. Only called tech support once. I don't think there is a person in the whole world that after using a Mac for a month, would ever go back to using a PC.

The Mac experience is wonderful. If you have a question, they have tons of staff available to answer any question you might have.

Oh yeah. lets see I bought 5 HP notebooks 3 years ago. How many are actually working today? Only 2, and one of those one had two mother boards replaced. HP's are total POS.

Let's compare some stats. My high powered HP notebook takes like 5 to 6 min to boot up. My Macbook Pro takes 23 seconds. My HP takes minutes to shut down. My Mac 7 seconds even with 10 plus apps open.

My HP will run for maybe 20min on its battery. My Mac will always go 5 to 6 hours and as many as 10 hrs.

My HP will lock up oh on average once every other use. My Mac locked up once in 9 months.

You screw up installing something on a HP, you end up getting out the original backup disks and starting over.

I completely did a no no upgrading to snow leopard, my butter fingers. The Mac recovered flawlessly from me doing a bad thing during the up grade process with no hitch what's so ever.

Buy a PC ever again. Not a chance in hell. Frankly you couldn't even give me one free.
From Greg at The Slope

Monday, October 12, 2009

musings from El Viejo on several of our economies - The Future of the Economy in the USA will probably be discussed in catagories - some down some up

Hard to think in %’s. I think the average $300m home today was thought to be worth $450m by the owners. So they are waiting, some renting, and others are waiting to be processed out (forclosed.) Over the next 3 years the value could go down to $225,000….Then, yes 5% per year increase after that (2012.) How does that sound – from my economic assessment company – I am neither Case nor Shiller. One thing we have learned – those out front pontificating are wrapped up in their own “mechanics” of thought and prejudices. There are still few bargains out there – and there have to be many more – Inventory (supply) of private sellers (many who are putting their properties on and off the market – to avoid “spoilage”) We haven’t even reached the kind of “Pain Point” required to call a bottom…a real bottom unaffected by artificial stimulus (like $8000 for first time buyers) We are now seeing “Absolute” auctions (no price retainage) We will be seeing more – lots more…. The Corporate Builders have yet to face their biggest nightmare (who wants to live in a gated community?) Originally thought to keep the “unfit to own” out of the community – now “it is thought by many” Gated communities are gatherings of refugees – no one wants to live with.
After, what will be a Xmas, of market dumping (from old merchandise packed deep in the warehouses we will see storefronts (strip malls, etc) fold up – Drive in to return a movie to Blockbuster and find the store is empty – commercial property – will be the next “Dong” in this “Ding Dong” fall apart – with another round of major layoffs – who will pay their mortgages, utilities, Taxes, etc… the local governmental economic environment facing a “spending” and collection disaster – RECOVERY? Did I say enough? We are in the eye of the storm – quiet, almost pleasant and reassuring – and the second “things didn’t line up” wave – The need to have everyone have a safety net in Healthcare is ABSOLUTELY necessary – because the healthcare system has to remain viable during “disastrous” times. Why are the markets in “Recovery?” Because everyone wants the “eye of the storm” to continue in peace. The Real Estate Industry’s selling techniques have not changed, The Automobile Dealers haven’t changed either. Credit availability is on Vacation….Earnings Season is the “hope” before the storm – which should continue after earnings season is over….The Republican Party and supporters are acting in “surety” to enhance this failure. It’s going to be a very cold win

Sunday, October 11, 2009



home farm
Thanksgiving 07 The Farm PondThanksgiving 07
On the road

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

I read the posts here about "when" I'm too old to have all the technical data that many of you have mastered.

Look - it's simple for me - after the market closes on Tuesday, October 13, Intel will report earnings - and "Talk the Talk" - that will tell me more about where I'm going and the market is going than all the "Talking Heads, and hundreds of subscribed and free guru sites on the Web.

full disclosure:
a full up load of INTC calls January 2012 - deep in the money - runs penny for penny with the stock
Long Term Stock position in PWE Dividend yield 10.81% (stock price $11 in July $15 now)
Long Term CLWR various date calls, in the money
Long Term Calls PALM various dates deep in the money (held and rolled for two years)
Stock Position in UNG since early September - thanks to Tim - still holding.
Long-Term Calls GE deep in the money - not doing much + or -
If GE begins to break-up and keep their Core (which is not consumer, entertainment or financial)
strip that value out and something will happen - GE cannot go forward as a Dinosaur.

My trading account is waiting for the VIX to get off the toilet - closed below 27 today -

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Verizon - unfortunately balks at correcting Mistake

Verizon and RIMM - Rush to Market a year ago with "The Storm" - they have tried to change the programs, etc - but the big problem still remains - probably Hardware - It is "low rated" everywhere by almost everyone. It is being dumped by Verizon at very cheap prices - and... and
RIMM is hurrying out an update - Too BAD for the folks who relied on the manufacturer and Verizon - we all signed 2 year contracts on good faith. At this time the following equipment is "new generation" and high rated - iPhone and the Palm Pre - the rest are 2nd rate. A new and faster Broadband is arriving in 4G - where ATT and Verizon are scurrying to match...but not ready, while there are more than 10 markets (cities) that have 4G w/Clear (who?) Oh, yes, backed by Intel, Google, Sprint and some other deep pockets.

Between my Storm and Broadband Card I am paying more than $150 - for services on October 3, 2009 (today) are last generation and outdated...

The Storm did not come out with planned obsolescence - it came out obsolete! Slow, Sure Type poor keyboard - lots of redundancy - inconsistent - screen providing what was not asked for - some freezes after their corrections - afterall all the updates most of the problems are still present - so they are coming out with a Storm 2 (why - hardware cannot be corrected with updates)

Verizon is stonewalling - and about to lose me after 15+ years.

These are times where we should not accept - profit squeezing at the customer's expense

Good Bye Southwest Airlines (Chase) credit card who watered down the benefits and held their fees - Now I have a Schwab Visa Card and get automatic deposit of 2% monthly for my use

Good Bye General Motors - who failed me in producing a quality $50,000 Diesel Truck

Good Bye Cabelas - who was equal to LLBean - and is now a schlock house

My Dentist - who was patronizing me for profit. The new dentist - is on the right track and as good or better - If you live near Cave Creek - I would on

Good Bye - PC - Microsoft cannot even upgrade XP to Win7 without having you buy Vista - Moving toward Apple Mac - late winter

More to come - Verizon is on the Good Bye Bench - along with 6 other companies I deal with.


After much correspondence and a phone call Verizon realizes that they are losing a 15 year $30,000 account (for 15 years) while I have a goodbye fee of $175 - It will be interesting to see how a big company loses a long-time customer over a cost to them of about $500 (3 months current bills.) Lets see how a giant company makes micro economic decisions - I also related that I would sign an agreement not to divulge any deal.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Pivot Point - Weather Changing

Arrived back in Boise - air travel over for awhile and back to "The Road" looking for direction. The Weather in Boise is turning from an average of 90 degrees to late fall temps of 50 to 60 and moisture returns.

Should make a change about October 15th - East, West or South?

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Autumn in New York

In New York September 18 thru the 28th

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Trading, etc. and Senator Boner (as in hardon) The New Mr. Evil

recent NR-7 alerts (act like coiled springs)

Symbol Time (NY) Message
WFR 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
BCRX 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
KOP 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
KNDL 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
ACTC 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
HINKY 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
HURN 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
MMSI 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
NVDA 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
SPEC 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
GG 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
CBU 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
NOOF 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
GVI 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7-2
CEPH 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
TLVT 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
WTU 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
MXIM 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7-2
BIL 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
NMR 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
EM 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
CVA 09/18/09, 16:00:01 NR7
OEH 09/18/09, 16:00:01 NR7
LLBO 09/18/09, 16:00:01 NR7
HOV 09/18/09, 16:00:01 NR7

From Trade Ideas

Definition of NR-7 (Trader Mike http://tradermike.net/2006/10/narrow_range_bars... )
Definition of Coiled Springs (Farley - http://www.hardrightedge.com/tour/spring.htm )

Everyone asks where do I get a list to start looking at what to look at - here is one and definitions of what you are looking at.

Oh? on a different subject - I am lucky to have a Public Option in my insurance. Medicare - plus all the gaps and options. I have never had such good coverage at a cost of insurance equal to 15 years ago in my business.
Oh? yes - Medicare is going broke - Bull $hit - it's a political term that the government uses when it borrows Social Security money collected and then has to pay it back without interest over many years - they don't like to pay back borrowed money to folks who will by dying soon - let them go before a death board and then let them die.

PS. 2nd only to Mr. Evil - Dick Cheney is Representative Boner (as in hardon) just look at him - EVIL!
From Peachin 67 years old

Friday, September 18, 2009

Planning 50th High School Reunion - Highland Park High School, Highland Park Illinois - 1960

1960 Class Pictures Graduation Highland Park High School

March 2009 - Dandelion Wine Store - Lily Peachin, Prop.
Brooklyn, New York - Weekly Friday Night wine tasting

The Reunion Committee of 20 is planning a very big turnout
Next September (2010)

Thursday, September 17, 2009

I am layering in hedge positions

everyday a few shares of ProShares ultra short RUT and Nas. I'll be adding thru Options Expiration Day (Friday) and will re access on Tuesday next.

Monday, September 14, 2009

On The Mark

I'm almost back for my fall season go-around Back to Boise from Seattle tonight - off to NYC in a week, for a week, back to Boise for a week or two - then on the road in mid-October maybe, and maybe a change in the markets after all the power of China, Europe and USA try to F'up the economies with protectionism. Tires and Chicken import curbs, etc.

I would say astrology aside, but Susan Miller at Astrologyzone is suggesting an across the board (all signs) facing some interesting economic changes between 9/15 and 9/23 - distill this down - in her discussion - we'll go in one way and come out another if we are flexible and willing to change with a change in circumstances...WTF

I'm heavy in Canadian Oil, Clearwire, XTXI, GE and Intel....staying that way - we'll see may have to start hedging - which requires "pick a point" accuracy and followup "worry"

Change is in the weather, the stars and in all the world economies - hope is not optimism - it is hope - a four letter word of sorts - it's a word that goes with "nothing left to lose" - "Cautious optimism" is a means nothing created in the media to say words diametrically opposed to each other.

So let's look toward good weather and feeling good - while we watch our acorn supply

Sunday, August 30, 2009

The Fig - summer evening at the farm - end of Summer

The Fig is my daughter Lily
Howie is my Son Isaac
Rioja Man is Lily's Partner Adrian
Austin is my grandson, son of Isaac
Jackpot, Bonita and Chewie
are pets of the families.
"The Farm" - family farm in
Charlotteville, NY
The Mother of our Family
Gail Peachin (nee Platt)
divorced (now friends) 1987)

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Taking time off until after Labor Day -

I believe the markets will be basing until after Labor Day September 7th. The basing either becomes a hard base or a hard resistence in the future. I believe we are in a Bull Market, within a Bear Market. The Bears are licking their wounds...the options markets and short positions on the put side are Dormant and the $VIX is at all time lows (Volitility Index)........I'll be back sometime after Labor day when the $VIX breakes through $30....otherwise scalping looses interest when more $$$ is required to make little gains......Labor Day always represented the (Real) New Year for me - Fall, School Started etc..............>

Friday, August 14, 2009

Hopefully moving to Mormon Bend, Campground

8 Miles North of Stanley, Idaho about 6,400+ feet - located on the Salmon River

My schedule thru Thanksgiving:
Stanley/Sun Valley, ID to Labor Day
Return to Boise - High Valley Campground
Fly to Seattle //September 10 to 14
Fly to New York September 21st to 28
Boise - load up and travel the Northwest
(Oregon, Washington) thru Thanksgiving....
Bonita's Pond at the Farm, Charlotteville, New York

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Ex-Wife, Divorce Lawyer Killed As Model Train Careens Off Tracks

KOFSKY BASEMENT—In an accident that model train conductor Howard Kofsky called "a real goddamn shame," an 8-inch passenger car carrying his ex-wife Jillian Gilpin and her divorce attorney Pete Koechman careened off the tracks Monday after a miniature truss bridge suddenly and mysteriously went missing. "Jillian died on impact," the 44-year-old Kofsky said while standing over the wreckage in his boxer shorts. "That snake lawyer, though, he suffered a broken back, neck, legs, arms, face, fingers, and ribs, and was bleeding internally a lot. Also, he was burned alive after a giant lighter came down from the sky and set him on fire." According to basement sources, this is the eighth time that both Kofsky's ex-wife and her legal prosecutor have perished this month.

Friday, August 7, 2009

Microsoft about to Drive me off of PC's

Windows 7 is about to be released - so they say. You'll be able to upgrade from Vista but not from XP ( unless you obtain a vista program to upgrade twice)to Windows 7

What a perfect time to switch to an Apple Computer

Except and maybe, Windows will start to get feedback of the large numbers of XP people will be joining me. I will however stay with XP until it will not be updated. As for software upgrades supporting XP after 7 is released - well - we'll see.

I have been notified by my best security system - that the next 6 months will be free and then will be discontinued.....it is Microsoft's and probably the best web security system (Windows live One Care - allowing full security for up to 3 computers)

Microsoft announced that it will have some transfer programs - not for non-proprietary programs - but will do their files.....all non-Microsoft programs will have to be reloaded - and remember when XP came out how many programs would not transfer and I remember calling each company to get fixes - took 2 weeks +......not again for me.....I'll ride out XP until I can't and then I'll be getting a Mac - what an opportunity for Apple to dry clean the industry....!!!!

Monday, August 3, 2009

Canadian Oil - Riding on devalued $US and Oil controlled

This market is riding in a groove of high clear water between waves coming from both sides... Technical Analysis works when there is constant put and take of pressure which changes with Volume....this market is not reacting to the geometry of Technical Analysis - it has been a "full speed ahead" market - with early controls promising a change, a trap if you will, and then moves past Resistance like a wind picked up to push it over the line....yes the change in the $ value is part of the cause....the folks who feel that they didn't board the train before it left the station - and the pros who are playing "Bait and wait" for those who always pick the wrong time to get in. Not included in Technical Analysis is a greater influence....The Full Moon Coming which starts its "Draw" about 4 days before it becomes a force to deal with - "Change"

Those of you who missed courses in Economics relating to GNP and what influences GNP - inflation, etc. Government Spending (worldwide) takes a big seat at the table.......

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Never Go to Wal-Mart - They treat their employees like shit - Huh? Prejudice?

Thank god for Wal-mart ($WMT) because they're employing tens of thousands of otherwise completely unemployable people. - Chairman MaoXian

Prejudice goes with Arrogance and Ignorance as the triple threat to sound thinking - OK

Then Wal-Mart has displaced small businesses around the country and has changed the small town feeling - Huh?

What about...Amazon, Target, Home Depot, Lowes, Costco, Yea....what about them?

What about "Evolution" in communities? Want to hate something awful? Hate Gated Communities - they have changed the land they are on forever!

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

The Clutter of Twitter, Facebook, MySpace, et al.

Internet Clutter. Facebook is an accumulation of friends, family and Businesses that you have a relationship - it is keeping you up on those people, most of which are chit-chatting and time consuming.

Twitter, is an accumulation site for a subscriber, where people keep up on the latest posts, of more than friends and family, but also others whose posts are important to you in your endeavors.

My Space is drowning - replicating the future advances of Yahoo.

I, personally, use Netvibes to accumulate on one page - all of my most important sites - which show from 2 to 7 of their last posts - I have had Netvibes for 2 years maybe, and is still the best source for me. I will retain Facebook and Twitter - but will declassify their presence via putting them on the bottom of my Netvibes home page - to be glanced at when I have nothing better to do.

The Web is consuming as the quality of information is being smothered by social bullshit.

As a trader in the markets, I read many posts by other traders following 20, 30, 40, 50 companies daily who have shown "something" that might cause them to change in their security price....all of this enormority is not only time consuming - it is too much for this 67 year old man to deal with. There is no better time to filter everything - to limit Focus - and cull the garbage.

I follow 3 to 5 securities at a time - and trade them, until one looses its volitility and then I bring on another one or two.

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Current Positions - Economic Dallience

Long Term Calls
Penn West (canadian oil trust)
Money Markets (55%)
Market - reinforcement
Markets will dally around 9000 into Labor Day
Obama's plans are holding and working slowly
Obama Detractors speaking louder and convincing "the sheep" not working
Markets will test or make a retracement lower - for accumulation before advancing
Market potential - 10,000 vs 7500 by jan 2010
Oil - $75
Canadian Dollar - moving once again toward parity (Hence Canadian Oil Trust)

Walter Cronkite - Rest in Peace - 92

[Walter Cronkite]An undated photo provided by CBS, shows CBS television newscaster Walter Cronkite. Famed CBS News anchor Walter Cronkite, known as the 'most trusted man in America' has died, Friday, July 17, 2009. He was 92.

Monday, July 13, 2009

Switzerland Harboring 50,000 enemies of USA

We are negotiating with Switzerland to release Lists of American Citizens and Corporations that provide a "safe harbor" for untaxed dollars - USA criminals if you will. Swiss laws prevent Banks from revealing their depositors names.

I say, Invade Switzerland - gather up all these funds from all the countries in this world. Return the funds, in their entirety - to the countries of citizen origination - and make these citizens prove that the funds were legal and taxed by these countries - or - the funds would revert to that country. As for Switzerland - "Fuckem!!" Then, time to take the Swiss currently responsible, invade their funds - try them in international courts - and "away with them!"
As for the funds retrieved, the American citizens who are found to be harboring illegal funds and untaxed funds - They have a choice - Stay free in this country and allow the funds to be 100% taxed - or...take the tax and interest - and allow the criminals to spend some time in our prisons - rent free - for 10 to 25 years - to be negotiated...

I believe we would be going a long way in balancing the budget quickly with these funds.

Monday, June 29, 2009

All The News that's Fit To Print - Billy Mays Dead at 50!......BUT WAIT THERE'S MORE!!!

OK, Farrah Fawcett, Michael Jackson - but Billy Mays - yes one of the most notable voices on TV in the 21st Century - For Whatever - Our Society is Responsible for the Great Success of Billy Mays - as in the past "Set it and Forget it" was Ronco's Hall of Fame pitch until Billy Mays took the spotlight

"But wait! THERE’S NO MORE!!"

Billy Mays - A true American Icon - The only man who was tolerated in speaking in "ALL CAPS" - Rest in Peace

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Obama has had everyone read this.........

Obama has had everyone read this, and you should too. It provides a very different angle on the problem. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/06/01/090601fa_fact_gawande?yrail

- from John Mauldin

Saturday, June 20, 2009

John Mauldin - one of my favorite Commentators

From John:
This Time is Different*

"I have often written that the four most dangerous words in the investment world are "This Time It's Different." If memory serves me, I have written several e-letters disparaging various personages who have uttered those very words, and gone one to confirm later that it wasn't different. It almost never is. And yet - and yet! - I am going to make the case over the next few weeks that it really is different this time, with only a lonely asterisk as a caveat. What prompts my probable foolishness to tempt the investing gods is the rather large amount of bad analysis based on unreasonable (dare I say lazy or surface?) readings of statistics that is coming from the mainstream investment media and investment types with their built-in bias for bullish analysis. Normally, gentle reader, your humble analyst is a paragon of moderate sensibilities, but I have been pushed over a mental edge and need to restore balance. I anticipate that this topic will take several weeks, as trying to cover it all in one sitting would exhaust us both. It should be fun....we are on a track that looks far more like the Great Depression than the recessions of our lifetimes. To expect a normal recovery cycle, whether it is corporate profits or lending or consumer spending or capital investment or (pick a category) is just not reasonable. This is a period that is fundamentally, in so many ways, different. And the recovery (and there will be one!) will also be of a different warp and woof throughout the entire world economy...The asterisk on "This Time It's Different*"? Human nature hasn't changed. We are still driven by fear and greed. The business cycle has not been repealed. Free-market capitalism will get us back (with a few new rules of engagement). What's different will be the nature of this recovery. All the other eternal truths will remain."

From Me:

Finally, the phrase - "Too Big To Fail" yes our economy is too big to fail - and the requirement to restore growth is to eliminate the "waste:" unnecessary spending, using of credit, greed, planning and spending without really planning, Etc. ALSO - the speed of time in our lives and conditions cannot allow "the lapse of Recession/Depression" to happen - it is mathmatical and probable that this recovery will be called a Miracle - the government is doing the right thing by throwing money at everything (it's what we do - buy a problem away - it has worked every time and it will work now) What about the future cost. We live for now - the future will take care of itself - as it has in the past.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Holden Caulfield would be 76 years old this year

J.D Salinger (The Recluse,) 90 years old, is living in a Hospital as someone is publishing a follow-up - to capitalize on the Classic Novel - blocked in Court from being published and sold............

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

From a trader suffering with Dementia

Update on the market from an insecure trader.  My current thinking is relying on 9000 on the Dow to be a "Basing Point" (place to stop and ponder) building pressure before making a decision - maybe even beginning a "Coiled Spring"

T2108 is showing a 90 number which is displaying an immediate turn-around is due. But we know it can stay above 80 for more that one would think.  It is also showing a MACD which is just crossing into positive territory (a conflict to the previous statement.) Also, the RSI has recently crossed above 50 (another conflict to the first statement.)

The Markets are making "good news" out of minimally positive news and the VIX is below the magical 30 (at 29.84) working on a daily charting channel where the support is at about 27 - 28.

Finally, when all fails I look at the Moon
Sunday is a full Moon - representing Change

The Fig!

Monday, June 1, 2009

The Economy - Boise, Idaho - Point of View

(Since no one really reads all this stuff - let me say that the Stock Market is rising to 9,000 and then will hold and eventually pull back (to as much as 7500) after the buyers lose their patience for recovery and the weary hype that will drown in itself.  Oil is increasing for the "wishing price" by the producers and sellers - it too may hit 75 but will eventually reduce itself to the low 50's. Real Estate like a bad batch of Muffins - has squatted to rise and will once again get "cooked in the squat.")

In any event - President Obama and his team will be winning world records in handling the problem that was mostly created by the Bush Administration - and holdover bad economic situations that had been created since the 1970's (when the unions crippled the auto industry - a two month industry Union Strike, that gave them the Power! The Seed was planted in the 1970's and I have no sympathy for the millions of workers who chewed on the fat until the plants closed - they were overpaid  since the mid 1970's had the best unemployment, best retirement plans and best medical insurance - Wow!  Can you imagine they are very disturbed that the ship sunk!)  I feel very sorry for all the auto people - but it was an obvious result.

Boise Idaho population about 225,000. Capital of Idaho.  College town: 10% of total population is represented by Students and Faculty.  Largest Employer: Micron Technology 10,000.

Boise is a well known entry to the surrounding Mountain Area in Fishing, Rafting, etc. Hunting, skiing, and other Mountain Recreation sports - winter and summer. 

Real Estate - The current dilemma: At June 1st 2009, There are a record number of unsold homes and previously owned homes for sale.  Rental rates are sinking 30% - as a confluence of ordinary rentals and Homes for sale/ turned into rentals are sinking the market.  There appears to be no recovery in Real Estate "for sale" and now "for rent" in sight.*

Employment - Unemployment in the last 12 months has gone up from 4.5 to 8.6% of total employment.

No current Recovery in sight.

*people are moving out of houses they can't afford - failing to sell the house, they are trying to rent the house while for sale - so the rent will pay the mortgage, insurance and taxes - which of course the rent will not do.  Then they are renting something cheaper...so they are paying rent on where they moved, plus all or some of the costs of the house they cannot Afford, Sell or Rent.
....I guess I would call this....Getting in Deeper

On a Macro Level (USA)

What Hasn't Changed (at all)?
The employment problem
The Real Estate problem
Transition of Failed Economics
Real Estate
Government Costs

What Has Changed?
A better smarter Administration
The Beginning of Transition of Failed Businesses
Automobile Industries
Banks and Financial Institutions
The price of Oil and Gas 
States, Cities and Towns - regrouping
Republican Party looks permanently paralysed
The general population has begun saving
spending less
using less credit/increase in Debit Cards
Borrowing less

What looks like progress but isn't
lower interest rates (no one is borrowing - Banks are hoarding)
Inflation - higher food prices - Oil rising without reason
Regrouping the Auto Industry - change will require 6 to 18 months
Regrouping the Financial Industry - the crooks are just looking for another twist

Just as an example - look at the weekend ads for Automobiles and Real Estate the Sellers have not changed how they were misleading consumers - It would be interesting to review 10 automobile sales - the same car, same dealer and see the differences in the prices - type of buyer (women, minorities, weak men)

Yesterday, you could reserve a quality room in a hotel, resort and it would be interesting to see the different rates paid by similar people - one example is $110 to $375 per nite/same room/same season/days of week/etc.... The Hotel Industry needs to be severely punished by the economy and the consumer - the consumer should take no prisoners