Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's troubled facial expression: "How dreadful has sentiment about the economy and financial system become? If one picture is worth a thousand words, what are two pictures worth?"
Bernanke's testimony before a congressional committee on Thursday reaffirmed the market's worries about the health of the economy. He admitted that the tumbling house prices, increased energy costs, falling consumer spending, increasing unemployment and weak stock market performance were more than likely to drag down US economic growth. Bernanke expressed his support for significant fiscal and monetary stimulus as a pre-emptive strike against a US recession. Despite these pronouncements the stock market plummeted by more than 300 points
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Thoughts by others:
We've moved into a new phase of the subprime debacle, and I don't mean bear market, but fight for investment survival. Warren Buffett has described debt as a dagger aimed straight at the heart of a company. As they say, "if you owe the bank 100,000 dollars, you're in trouble. But if you owe the bank 100 million, then the bank's in trouble."
After a wild week in the markets, there is so much to write about, it is hard to know where to start. The headline number says jobless claims fell 20,000. That would be good news, if it were true. Sometimes you need to look behind the curtain to see how these statistics are made. As we will see, claims were actually up by 26,000.
While we're at it - Inflation should represent all costs not exclude the most basic costs - food and energy!
While they are changing the definition of many things to Reality - let's have the popular vote elect the president - not a collection of political based areas in the states - Electoral College
The election of the President of the United States and the Vice President of the United States is indirect. Presidential electors are selected on a state by state basis as determined by the laws of each state. Currently each state uses the popular vote on Election Day to appoint electors. Although ballots list the names of the presidential candidates, voters within the 50 states and the District of Columbia are actually choosing Electors from their state when they vote for President and Vice President. These Presidential Electors in turn cast the official (electoral) votes for those two offices. Although the nationwide popular vote is calculated by official and media organizations, it does not determine the winner of the election.
I could go on and on - it is imperative that we move toward What the People want - not what the politicians and their ilk need. Political Lobby Organizations should be illegal. Good and bad!
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Note: I just finished reading the book. I guess the first thing you want to challenge is your perception. Is it developed by previous lessons (the likes of which might have had different results.) Is it developed by Prejudice ( one way looking.) Is it developed by Social desires (wanting to be accepted by those you emulate?)...The book challenges how one makes decisions - and the basis for those decisions.
*I have read more than 30 books in 2007 (mostly non-fiction) "How We Know What isn't so" is my "best of the year" - not an easy read.
"Reality is a curious convention. It is the special norm for each of us. Based upon the evidences of our own senses, we have each established our own version of Reality." - John D. MacDonald "Nightmare in Pink" - The Travis McGee series 1964
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Beannacht (”Blessing”) by John O’Donohue
On the day when
the weight deadens
on your shoulders
and you stumble,
may the clay dance
to balance you.
And when your eyes
the grey window
and the ghost of loss
gets in to you,
may a flock of colours,
indigo, red, green,
and azure blue
come to awaken in you
a meadow of delight.
When the canvas frays
in the currach of thought
and a stain of ocean
blackens beneath you,
may there come across the waters
a path of yellow moonlight
to bring you safely home.
May the nourishment of the earth be yours,
may the clarity of light be yours,
may the fluency of the ocean be yours,
may the protection of the ancestors be yours.
And so may a slow
wind work these words
of love around you,
an invisible cloak
to mind your life.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Investors should evaluate their risk exposures and tolerances now, in order to allow for substantial further market weakness. Market conditions presently feature a Pandora's Box of rich valuations, vulnerable profit margins, rising default risk, rapidly deteriorating market internals, failing support levels, and accumulating evidence of oncoming recession. As I noted in my December 17 comment, "there is one particular scenario that would be ominous in my view. That would be if we see a relatively uninterrupted series of declines that breaks cleanly through the August and November lows, followed by a one-day advance of 200-400 Dow points. That's a script that markets tend to follow pre-crash." -
- John Hussman