Wednesday, May 21, 2008

On Being a Contrarian - Beginning June 7th

There will be very few people on the road this summer - The vacation areas that are accessible by motor vehicle are going to experience many vacancies. Airlines will be the way to go anywhere - no doubt cheaper to most and many have credit card mileage - no cost flying - if planning ahead.

I have decided to go back on the road June 7th - as I am a contrarian - This will be a most interesting time to travel. Probably the greatest distraction to summertime vacations are the crowds. So, Paying a premium for fuel, is an additional cost, for eliminating the crowds - a good price for the benefit.

I will begin from Flagstaff and travel to RT 395 in California (highest fuel cost) and drive north on the east side of the Sierra just west of the Nevada border. Reno, Lake Tahoe, etc. and then toward Oregon - My favorite three towns in a triangle - Bend, Sisters and Redmond. I will cross over to the Portland area and then work my way up to Seattle Washington to be at my grandson's first birthday party. After, Seattle I'm off to Montana to visit some friends and then work my way down to Las Vegas, where I have a meeting with some business friends. The trip ends in Flagstaff near the Mid August summer and I will be there until, maybe Nov 1st. I should be returning to Cave Creek by November 1st until May 1st, 2009 which should be the bottom of the Recession/ Depression - Lite. Many Citizens of the United States will be in the first stage of changing their lives - to a survival like condition for awhile - maybe more.

We are headed for a collapse of our economy - big time! It will begin - in full force, after the election into the darkness of the Winter.

Want to know why? Read:

Then hit the story:
Paul B. Farrell: Government's 'numbers racket' is about to blow up in our faces

This is not written by some radical - it is a book review of Kevin Phillips book.

It will be on top of all the best selling lists - soon!

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Everything is going to be OK!...?

How we react to our own Medical Problems when opinions are given by Professionals. 2nd opinions are always invited. A team of Dr's gathered together giving an opinion rate a greater reception. No one likes bad news - so most (most) opinions are optimistic. It's part of selling the profession. We are all awaiting the prognostication that we prefer, everything is going to be OK. A bad turn, in a Medical Problem, well, that's unavoidable and the original opinion makers don't appear at the "Delivery of Bad News"

That's what is happening in our Economic environment. We hear what we want to hear. People who are fully invested in their retirement plans, etc. - don't want to think, they are caught in the headlights, they want to be told everything is going to be OK. It's not.

The powerful Wall Street investment concerns can keep the market's at an irrational higher level with the assets they have and their ability to make announcements and give advise that counter act the Market's direction. They pre-invest in their proposed upward investment, analyze when the upward prices become fatigued - short the market while the last ones in are finishing up - then they force the markets downward - to profit on both sides - the rise and fall. All of the news is projecting - we are at the bottom and on our way up - it's not true, and it's obvious.

Friday, May 9, 2008

Flagstaff - A town I love - Good Place to wait out a storm

Denial - yes everyone is in denial about the economy, about the effect on their lives - you can see it clearly - here in a town of Moderate Size. Flagstaff is one of the Major Railroad entries into the west. In previous years, there were trains full of 2 story trailers - going both ways - it never stops - but today, my 2nd day - the railroad traffic is less than half. When I went out for a Bike rideI saw two different trains with an average of 50 -75 flat cars empty of trailers going to California. All of the marginal business in this gigantic Tourist Town have or are in the process of going out of business -

The Stock Market - is being played by the big boys - to lessen the idea of an enormous Recession. In the Coffee shops, on the streets, restaurants, etc. the most used words are talk of Recession.

Actually a big storm always cleans lots of stuff. I'm for that Storm (Recession!) The bigger the better.

Friday, May 2, 2008

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" - John Maynard Keynes

The Stock Market has recovered to 13,000

Signaling that the Recession is under control, that Inflation is under control and that the Credit and Housing industry is in a recovery mode. I guess the American Automobile Industry will be climbing back into profit mode. Groceries and Gasoline prices are "soon to be falling" - NO?
Then what?