Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Cavalo - simplemente increíble! - Do not play if you are sensitive

I do not recommend this video if you are against bull fighting and animal cruelty -I am against animal cruelty - But I cannot resist the quality of a horse and rider - too bad it had to be with these circumstances!

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Full Moon - Monday January 22, A Day in History live


Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's troubled facial expression: "How dreadful has sentiment about the economy and financial system become? If one picture is worth a thousand words, what are two pictures worth?"
Bernanke's testimony before a congressional committee on Thursday reaffirmed the market's worries about the health of the economy. He admitted that the tumbling house prices, increased energy costs, falling consumer spending, increasing unemployment and weak stock market performance were more than likely to drag down US economic growth. Bernanke expressed his support for significant fiscal and monetary stimulus as a pre-emptive strike against a US recession. Despite these pronouncements the stock market plummeted by more than 300 points

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Note to the Government - less talk more walk!

Thoughts by others:
We've moved into a new phase of the subprime debacle, and I don't mean bear market, but fight for investment survival. Warren Buffett has described debt as a dagger aimed straight at the heart of a company. As they say, "if you owe the bank 100,000 dollars, you're in trouble. But if you owe the bank 100 million, then the bank's in trouble."

After a wild week in the markets, there is so much to write about, it is hard to know where to start. The headline number says jobless claims fell 20,000. That would be good news, if it were true. Sometimes you need to look behind the curtain to see how these statistics are made. As we will see, claims were actually up by 26,000.

While we're at it - Inflation should represent all costs not exclude the most basic costs - food and energy!

While they are changing the definition of many things to Reality - let's have the popular vote elect the president - not a collection of political based areas in the states - Electoral College
Electoral votes by state/federal district, for the elections of 2004 and 2008
The election of the President of the United States and the Vice President of the United States is indirect. Presidential electors are selected on a state by state basis as determined by the laws of each state. Currently each state uses the popular vote on Election Day to appoint electors. Although ballots list the names of the presidential candidates, voters within the 50 states and the District of Columbia are actually choosing Electors from their state when they vote for President and Vice President. These Presidential Electors in turn cast the official (electoral) votes for those two offices. Although the nationwide popular vote is calculated by official and media organizations, it does not determine the winner of the election.

I could go on and on - it is imperative that we move toward What the People want - not what the politicians and their ilk need. Political Lobby Organizations should be illegal. Good and bad!

Sunday, January 13, 2008

How We Know What Isn't So

..In all too many ways: Humans have a tendency to see order in randomness. We find patterns where none exist. While that trait might have helped a baby recognize its parents (thereby improving the odds for its survival), seeing patterns where none exist is counter-productive when it comes to investing." - Thomas Gilovich "How We Know What Isn't So " 2007 A book*

Note: I just finished reading the book. I guess the first thing you want to challenge is your perception. Is it developed by previous lessons (the likes of which might have had different results.) Is it developed by Prejudice ( one way looking.) Is it developed by Social desires (wanting to be accepted by those you emulate?)...The book challenges how one makes decisions - and the basis for those decisions.

*I have read more than 30 books in 2007 (mostly non-fiction) "How We Know What isn't so" is my "best of the year" - not an easy read.

"Reality is a curious convention. It is the special norm for each of us. Based upon the evidences of our own senses, we have each established our own version of Reality." - John D. MacDonald "Nightmare in Pink" - The Travis McGee series 1964

Saturday, January 12, 2008

John O'Donohue - rest in peace

Beannacht (”Blessing”) by John O’Donohue

On the day when
the weight deadens
on your shoulders
and you stumble,
may the clay dance
to balance you.

And when your eyes
freeze behind
the grey window
and the ghost of loss
gets in to you,
may a flock of colours,
indigo, red, green,
and azure blue
come to awaken in you
a meadow of delight.

When the canvas frays
in the currach of thought
and a stain of ocean
blackens beneath you,
may there come across the waters
a path of yellow moonlight
to bring you safely home.

May the nourishment of the earth be yours,
may the clarity of light be yours,
may the fluency of the ocean be yours,
may the protection of the ancestors be yours.
And so may a slow
wind work these words
of love around you,
an invisible cloak
to mind your life.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

What's Next?.....Alice Asks The Cheshire Cat

The Dow closed at exactly 12,800 it will either rebound to 13,100 or down toward 12,500. If no rebound from 12,500 then it could drop between 400 and 500 from there - should stay between 12,000 and 12,800 for about 3 weeks - if it never sees 13,000 during that time it will drop below 12,000 and darkness will prevail until March - If there is no reversal in our economy by spring there will be several crisis's - Housing, commercial real estate, Ford will have to do something - maybe break up - have a truck division and suv's - no cars. There will be a credit contraction including credit card balance disasters. There will be new laws to help - around debt, bankruptcy, etc. Many Hedge funds will go belly up - problems with government pension plans, etc. If all this happens before June (which I doubt) the war will end and our troops will be pulled home. Many corporations will go into default on their debts - retailers going out of business--- with no positive stuff happening the market could settle between 7500 and 8000. Just some thoughts after dinner - probably none of it will happen - things will get lucky - and every story will have a happy ending!

Another Opinion

Investors should evaluate their risk exposures and tolerances now, in order to allow for substantial further market weakness. Market conditions presently feature a Pandora's Box of rich valuations, vulnerable profit margins, rising default risk, rapidly deteriorating market internals, failing support levels, and accumulating evidence of oncoming recession. As I noted in my December 17 comment, "there is one particular scenario that would be ominous in my view. That would be if we see a relatively uninterrupted series of declines that breaks cleanly through the August and November lows, followed by a one-day advance of 200-400 Dow points. That's a script that markets tend to follow pre-crash." -
- John Hussman

Friday, January 4, 2008

David Lereah

Does everyone remember David Lereah, the former economist for the National Association of Realtors? He wrote a book at the height of the bubble claiming there wasn’t one.

From Barry Ritholtz

Tuesday, January 1, 2008


From Jill Williams

double click to enlarge